Dan’s 2024 NFL Predictions
One thing I always look at when making my predictions is an in-depth look at the schedule. Lots of people look at 2023 win-loss record and figure strength of schedule based on that. Amateurs.
I go deeper - whose win-loss record was impacted by a soft 2023 schedule, and which teams made major improvements (in my opinion) for 2024? That’s what determines true strength of schedule.
My general conclusions: the AFC East overperformed due to a soft schedule in 2023 and have a very difficult 2024. The AFC North is possibly the best division this millenium. The NFC South is better than last year, but might win fewer games because believe it or not, that division that couldn’t muster a single 10-win team had a soft 2023 schedule and a brutal 2024 one. But hey, at least they get to play each other.
It used to be that half of the playoff teams would be new every year; the 7-team playoff has changed that somewhat, but getting 6 new playoff teams out of 14 total still seems likely, and so I made sure my predictions factor that in.
Before I start officially writing out my 2024 predictions, I want to look at last year’s. It’s good for humility.
The good: predicting a winning record for the entire AFC North. I had the 49ers losing the Super Bowl. I called both the Defensive Player of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year! I put the Jets at 7-9-1 despite the Aaron Rodgers hype. Off by just half a game!
The bad: I grossly overestimated the Commanders, Giants, Patriots, Titans, and Chargers. I grossly underestimated the Dolphins, Colts, Packers, Buccaneers, and Lions.
The ugly: I had the Commanders as an 11-win playoff team. I admitted it was a big stretch and I was just going for poetic justice against Dan Snyder, but still.
So here’s hoping for a better set of predictions this year. Here we go:
AFC EAST
Dolphins 9-8
Jets 8-9
Bills 7-10
Patriots 3-14
AFC NORTH
Ravens 12-5
Bengals 12-5
Browns 12-5
Steelers 12-5
AFC SOUTH
Jaguars 11-6
Texans 11-6
Colts 9-8
Titans 7-10
AFC WEST
Chiefs 13-4
Chargers 9-8
Raiders 6-11
Broncos 5-12
NFC EAST
Eagles 11-6
Commanders 8-9
Cowboys 7-9-1
Giants 7-10
NFC NORTH
Packers 12-5
Lions 12-5
Bears 11-6
Vikings 6-11
NFC SOUTH
Falcons 10-7
Buccaneers 7-10
Saints 3-14
Panthers 2-15
NFC WEST
49ers 10-7
Seahawks 8-8-1
Rams 8-9
Cardinals 5-12
PLAYOFFS
Tiebreakers:
in the 4-way AFC North tie, the tiebreakers fall in that order. Having the toughest schedule ultimately gets the Ravens the #2 seed while the rest take up all the AFC wild card slots.
the Jaguars get the tiebreaker over the Texans due to strength of victory; the Texans are a top 10 team but get screwed out of a playoff spot because of wonky division imbalance.
The Packers get a better record against common opponents and top the Lions for the NFC North tiebreaker.
Wild Card Round:
#2 Ravens outlast the #7 Steelers
#6 Browns outduel the #3 Jaguars
#5 Bengals destroy the #4 Dolphins
#2 Eagles demolish the #7 Seahawks
#3 49ers survive the #6 Bears in an ugly one
#5 Lions embarrass the #4 Falcons
Divisional Round:
#1 Chiefs handle the #6 Browns
#5 Bengals topple the #2 Ravens
#5 Lions upset the #1 Packers
#3 49ers take the #2 Eagles to OT and win
Conference Championships:
#5 Bengals outshoot #1 Chiefs
#3 49ers sneak by #5 Lions
Super Bowl LIX
Kyle Shanahan finally has a good Super Bowl Sunday. 49ers win it all, 31-26.
AWARDS
MVP: Patrick Mahomes (yawn)
Offensive Player of the Year: Najee Harris
Defensive Player of the Year: C.J. Gardner-Johnson
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jayden Daniels
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Javon Bullard
Coach of the Year: Matt LaFleur
Super Bowl MVP: Christian McCaffrey
